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Archive for September, 2010

ObamaCare Claims another Unintended Consequence

September 30th, 2010 No comments

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The headline says “Treasury to make money on Citi share sales”…

September 29th, 2010 No comments

The government says it is starting to sell off $2.2 billion in trust preferred shares it holds in Citigroup, another move to recoup the costs incurred in the $700 billion financial bailout.

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The Treasury Department says it will start the sales Wednesday with the amount sold to be determined by market conditions.

The $2.2 billion in trust preferred shares were received by the government as part of Treasury’s agreement in January 2009 to share potential losses on a pool of $301 billion of assets held by Citigroup.

What they’re not saying is how much the taxpayers will have lost when losses on the $301 billion in loans is actually accounted for.  It almost certainly going to be some large multiple of the money they ‘make’ on  the sale of shares.

Don’t expect any headlines on that score.

Walgreen Blows through Expectations- CVS is today’s play.

September 28th, 2010 1 comment

Walgreen’s beat quarterly estimates with August quarter results of $0.49 versus $0.44 . Analysts had been looking for flat year-over-year results.

WAG has surged by 10.7% through 11:40 this morning.

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It’s too late to play WAG but not to jump in with the sale of some January 2012 LEAP puts on CVS which is likely to be seeing the same business climate but is on a calendar reporting year.

CVS is up about 3% in sympathy but still looks extremely cheap at $31.50 at 11.6x the current year estimate of $2.71 and 10.5x the 2011 view. Both these estimates are subject to upward revision after seeing the WAG numbers.

 

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I just sold some CVS Jan. 2012 $30 puts for $3.80 /share giving me a $26.20 break-even and a 16.8% margin of safety from the current quote of $31.50.

The bid on the Jan. 2012 $25 puts is still above $2 as I’m writing.

Disclosure: Author is long CVS shares and short CVS and WAG options.

Can you say BUBBLE?

September 28th, 2010 No comments

 

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The Death of Equities Redux.

September 28th, 2010 No comments

BusinessWeek magazine declared the Death of Equities pre-1980 with the DJIA around 800.

 While the market didn’t finish bottoming until August of 1982 the long-term results look pretty good in retrospect. Today’s similar ‘avoid equities’ mentality is likely to show the same type of gains for those with a reasonable time horizon.

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Back then it was inflation people were focusing on. Today it’s unemployment and stagflation/deflation. I still believe America will survive and prosper despite the horrendous decision making coming out of Washington.

Only in California…

September 26th, 2010 No comments

Calif. Inmate Gets More Time to Choose Execution Method

Paul Elias   AP
SAN FRANCISCO (Sept. 25) — A judge has given a death row inmate another day to choose his execution method.

Albert Greenwood Brown has until noon Sunday to decide between a lethal injection of one drug or the three-drug cocktail California has used in its last 12 executions.

U.S. District Court Judge Jeremy Fogel extended the deadline late Saturday after denying Brown’s second request to reconsider his ruling authorizing the execution Wednesday.

Fogel said he would cancel the execution if prison officials refused a request for a one-drug execution.

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Where else but California would a judge bar an execution to give the guilty party a choice of execution methods? The state must be sure to adhere to his selected method.
I’m sure the prisoner gave the same consideration to his victims.

Never trust a 401K Plan with a PowerBall Option

September 26th, 2010 No comments

No Powerball winner, jackpot goes to $35M

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Powerball: 30

 

Players matching all five numbers and the Powerball would have won or shared the $25 million jackpot. The prize goes to an estimated $35 million for Wednesday.

Tickets that match the first five numbers, but miss the Powerball, win $200,000 each, and there were none of those.

There were no Power Play Match 5 winners.

 

Americans just love it when the PowerBall isn’t hit so they can throw away more money on this 180,000,000 to 1 longshot bet. Even the consolation bet (5 of 6) wasn’t hit yesterday night.

If all the money flushed down the toilet on these losing tickets were invested in IRA accounts, people might actually have some savings at retirement age.

 

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