and Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN 38.30, +1.45, +3.94%) were upgraded to overweight from neutral by J.P. Morgan on Friday morning.
What timely advice! Coach had a 52-week range of $16.10 - $39.28 but opened today at a new high of $39.69 on this upgrade.
URBN had a 52-week range of $14.91 - $37.32 prior to J.P. Morgan’s upgrade and opened at $37.75 today.
Where is the value in analysts that go from neutral to overweight well AFTER huge [100% - 200%] up moves?
See my much earlier write-ups on both these stocks when they actually represented good value.
Coach was recommended here on Dec. 13, 2008 at $20.25 and again on May 6, 2009 when shares were $25.30. Urban Outfitters was posted here as a buy on Dec. 11, 2008 when the shares traded at $15.00 - not today’s $38.30 price.
From their IPO through fiscal 2008 (ended June 2008), sales and earnings did nothing but surge higher. Last year’s recession likely caused the first year-over–year EPS decline with the consensus estimate for FY 2009 now at $1.90 versus last year’s $2.06. Analysts are taking a conservative stance even further out by projecting a second straight earnings decline into FY 2010 to $1.80/share.
Coach, Inc. [NYSE:COH] - Dec. 12, 2008 price: $20.25
52-week range: $13.19 (Nov. 21, 2008) - $37.64 (May 15, 2008)
Shares of Coach, the upscale designer, producer and marketer, have been hit hard by the economic slowdown and the stock market’s year long collapse.
After touching an all-time high of $54 April 2007, COH dipped as low as $13.19 in the pre-Thanksgiving panic selloff.
How do the fundamentals look, though? Since being spun off from Sara Lee in October 2000 they have posted eight straight years of record, sales, cash flow, earnings and book value. Even their latest quarter (ended September) showed year-over-year improvement with EPS of $0.44 versus $0.40 in the same quarter of 2007.